Wednesday, November 24, 2010

KNOW YOU BRLM – KOTAK MAHINDRA CAPITAL COMPANY



The performance of the issues managed by the number ‘one’ merchant banker in the country is pathetic. From 1st Jan 2010 till date, the company has managed 19 issues. Out of the 19 issues only 9 IPOs are quoting above the issue price. The company’s success rate is 47%.  Where as First Choice IPO’s recommendations were correct in 16 out of the 19 IPO managed by Kotak, thus giving a success rate of 84%.


IPOs quoting below the offer price


NAME OF THE COMPANY

MONTH

ISSUE PRICE

PRICE AS ON 24-11-10

FIRST CHOICE RECOMMENDATIONS

VASCON

JAN

165

132

AVOID

DB REALTY

JAN

468

257

AVOID

NTPC

FEB

201

178

AVOID

HATHWAY

FEB

240

174

AVOID

NMDC-FPO

MARCH

300

257

INVEST

NITESH ESTATES

APRIL

54

36

AVOID

JAYPEE INFRA

MAY

102

79

AVOID

SKS MICRO

JULY

985

733

AVOID

BAJAJ CORP

AUG

660

584

INVEST

PRESTIGE ESTATES

OCT

183

160

AVOID



IPOs quoting above the offer price





NAME OF THE COMPANY

MONTH

ISSUE PRICE

PRICE AS ON 24-11-10

FIRST CHOICE RECOMMENDATIONS

JUBILIANT FOOD

JAN

145

593

AVOID

REC-FPO

FEB

203

348

INVEST

STD. CHRTD. BK
IDR

MAY

104

118

INVEST

HM MEDIA VENTURE

JULY

166

167

INVEST

GPPL

AUG

46

58

INVEST

EROS

SEP

175

189

INVEST

TECPRO

SEP

355

395

INVEST

OBEROI REALTY

OCT

260

266

INVEST

COAL INDIA

OCT

245

310

INVEST


IPO ANALYSIS: MOIL LIMITED – A MINI RATNA –ATTRACTIVELY PRICED. INVEST.


Close on the heels of the tremendous success of Coal India IPO, one more from IPO from the government. MOIL, formerly known as manganese ore (India) limited, the largest producer of manganese ore by volume, in India, is entering the capital markets in November. MOIL public offerings consists of 3, 36, 00,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each, in the price band of Rs 340-375. The issue is attractively priced. Edelweiss Capital J P Morgan and IDBI Capital markets are the BRLMs.


BUSINESS AND BACKGROUND:

MOIL is the largest producer of manganese ore, accounting for 50% of the total ore produced in the country. Manganese ore is primarily used to make ferro-alloys for steel production. Manganese is the fourth most used metal after iron, aluminum and copper. It improves the strength, toughness, hardness and workability of steel.

The company has long operating history of mining manganese ore in the country for more than four decades.

Over 90% of the world’s production of manganese is utilized in the desulphurization and strengthening of steel. MOIL’s production of manganese ore increased from 864,890 tonnes in Fiscal 2006 to 1,093,363 tonnes in Fiscal 2010.MOIL’s  ore reserves have an average manganese content of 36.0% -40.0%. In addition, none of the MOIL mines produces low-grade manganese ore. The company has access to approximately 22.0 million tonnes of proved and probable reserves and 37.2 million tonnes of measured mineral resources of manganese ore.


The company currently operates seven underground mines and three opencast mines.  MOIL produced 700,776 tonnes of manganese ore from our underground mines and 392,587 tonnes of manganese ore from our opencast mines in Fiscal 2010. India was currently the fifth largest producer of crude steel in the world in 2009 and is expected to become the second largest producer of crude steel in the world by 2015-2016.

 

FINANCIALS:
RS IN CRORES



2008

2009

2010

TOTAL INCOME

1015.44

1439.40

1087.85
NP AFTER TAX
 479.81
 663.79
 466.34
EPS
  27.47
  41.09
  27.72
RONW
  59%
  52%
  28%

NAV as on 31-03-10 is Rs 100/-

For the quarter ended June -10, the total income and profit after tax was Rs 373cr and Rs 182cr respectively.


OBJECTS:  Disinvestment by the government.


STRENGTHS:

1. Largest producer of manganese ore in India with access to significant reserves 
2. Well positioned to capture the growth potential of the Indian steel industry.
3. Track record of growth and efficient operation.
4. Strategic location of the mines provides the competitive advantages.
5. Strong capabilities for exploration, mine planning and research development.


Domestic demand-supply scenario in India
 
Demand for manganese ore and ferro alloys has increased considerably due to the increase in the production of steel. According to the National Steel Policy, projected steel production is likely to double within a decade’s time. There is likely to be a huge demand gap between the availability and requirement of ferro alloys if the production of ferro alloys fails to match the growth in production of steel.   Slower pace in the development of new mines as against the robust demand from the steel industry has already pushed India in becoming a net importer of manganese ore in the last 3 years. 

 

Outlook of Manganese ore:

With the expectations of robust growth in the domestic steel production, CARE Research foresees, demand for manganese ore is likely to increase during the next few years. CARE Research foresees the domestic manganese ore demand to grow at a CAGR of about 9% during the next 2-3 years and reach levels of 4.1 million TPA by FY12. The rising requirement of ferro alloy products for the steel and other metal-producing industries are likely to be the prime reason for a growth in the domestic demand for manganese ore.


VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS:

Being the largest producer, MOIL is advantageously placed in the sector. The India growth story intact, the demand for manganese ore likely to increase in the years to come. There are no companies listed in this sector, which can be strictly compared to MOIL. However, NMDC and Sea Goa are the nearest ones. At Rs 340-375, the issue is attractively priced, leaving some thing on the table for the retail investors. INVEST.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

MARKET MOVING TOO FAST - VAUATION OVER STRECHED - THE BUBBLE WILL BURST ONE DAY.

Although, the India growth story remains intact, the market is moving too fast, mainly due to liquidity factor. When the party ends, the correction will be sharp and deep. Small investors should follow cautious approach. Follow the 65:35 principle, in the over heated market. Stay invested only to the extent of 35%, keep the rest in bank.    India is one of the market which offers good opportunity for FIIs / PE funds, hence the rush. However, the music has to stop one day.

The sector, that is likely to out perform the market / index are Financial services including PSU banks, Infra, Telecom and Information Technology.  Be stock specific.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

TEN REASONS WHY ONE SHOULD NOT INVEST IN SKS MICRO FINANCE IPO


1. Unethical business: The Company is charging interest around 40% p.a. on money lent to the poor and down trodden.


2. Unsustainable business model: The business model will not sustain in the long -run.


3. No commitment from the promoters: SKS’s founder and chairman sold his shares to Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte for $12.9 million in Feb. this year.


4. Look at the salary of top executives :

Suresh Gurumani - Managing Director of the Company. The total monthly salary is Rs. 12, 50,000. In addition to the above, Mr. Suresh Gurumani was paid onetime bonus of Rs. 10,000,000, in April 2009.

Dr. Vikram Akula - chairman Rs 70.00 lacs p.a. In addition, ESOP amounting to Rs10.97lacs, totaling Rs 1.79cr p.a.


5. Mohd. Yunus says - “I get very worried when investment funds come to microfinance,” said the founder of Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, which pioneered the industry by giving small loans to rural women to start their own businesses. “I don’t want to excite businessmen that there is profit to be made here,”


6. The IPO will make the promoters, and other venture capitalists including some P/E funds that have stakes in these companies’ millionaires. The hapless borrowers continue to live in abject poverty.

7. Government /RBI will not be mute spectators to the exploitation.
They are bound to regulate the segment. This will make the business un- attractive.


8. Financial inclusion initiatives taken by the public sector banks will marginalize the micro finance business. Do not buy the theories put forth by the BRLMs to sell the issue.




9. The average cost of acquisition of shares by promoters is less than Rs50/-The Company has limited period of history and no dividend payment record.


10. The Andhra Pradesh government has constituted district level ‘Task Force Committees’ (TFCs) to investigate the unethical practices of micro finance institutions in the state. The committees were constituted after the government received many complaints against the loan shark practices adopted by some leading MFI’s of the state.
  

FOR IPO ANALYSIS OF SKS MICRO FINANCE LOG ON TO  FIRSTCHOICEIPOANALYSIS.COM

Thursday, July 08, 2010

MICRO FINANCE LENDING

It is sin to charge interest @ 26-36%p.a. on the monies lent to the hapless poor and the down trodden. These MFIs are no better than the blood sucking money lenders. The argument that we can not lend below 26% holds no water. The fact remains that the MFI s are in business to make more money by exploiting the situation. MFIs should function as NGOs. If you can not do business like an NGO do not do that, no body is forcing you to do that. The government is bound to regulate interest rate. That will happen sooner than you think. The MFIs which are not functioning on the lines of an NGO will crumble. These MFIs will realize their sin. If you want to help the poor, lend it like an NGO. Even if you lend it 10 people it is a noble work.

Monday, July 05, 2010

IPO ANALYSIS: HINDUSTAN MEDIA VENTURES LIMITED – SOARING CIRCULATION, STRONG BRAND EQUITY - INVEST

One of the leading print media company, which publishes, among others, ‘Hindustan‘, the third largest daily newspaper in India, in terms of Readership, with a Readership of 9.3 million readers. ‘Hindustan‘ began publication in 1936, during freedom movement and has been one of India‘s eminent Hindi newspaper dailies for over 70 years. ‘Hindustan‘ has the largest Readership in key Hindi-speaking markets of Bihar and Jharkhand, with a strong and growing presence in Delhi NCR and the states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It is one of the fastest growing Hindi daily newspapers in India.

‘Hindustan‘is presently printed at 16 locations in the states/regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi NCR. The distribution of newspapers takes place through a multi-tiered network of agents and vendors.

They also publish two Hindi magazines, ‘Nandan‘, a children‘s magazine, and ‘Kadambini‘, a general interest magazine. The company also operates the website, www.livehindustan.com, which focuses on providing news in Hindi with regional content.

ISSUE DETAILS:




ISSUE OPENS/CLOSE ON
05-07-10 / 07-07-10

ISSUE SIZE/FV

RS 300 CR/ RS 10

PRICE BAND

RS 162-175


BRLMS
EDELWEISS,KOTAK MAHINDRA

PROMOTERS

H T MEDIA LIMITED
  

FINANCIALS - RS IN CRORES

08
09
31-12-09

REVENUE

16.85

17.73

52.14

NET PROFIT

0.28

0.19

3.57

EPS

0.70

0.28

5.11

RONW

2.54%

1.74%

21%


OBJECTS:

The objects of the Issue are to raise funds for (1) setting up new publishing units (Rs 66cr) (2) upgrading existing plant and machinery (Rs 55cr) (3) prepayment of loans (Rs153cr)
CHALLENGES:


The Indian newspaper and magazine industry, particularly the Hindi newspaper and magazine industry, is intensely competitive. In each of the markets, the company faces competition primarily from other newspapers and magazines for circulation, readership and advertising. In addition, there is competition from other alternative forms of media including, but not limited to, television broadcasters, magazines, pamphlets, flyers, radio broadcasters and internet websites. These other forms of media compete with newspapers for advertisers and for the time and attention of the readers. Ad-spend by the advertisers and the ability to attract new advertisers is influenced largely by the circulation and readership, the geographical reach, readership demographics of the newspapers and the preference of advertisers for one media over another. Pricing in the short term may be affected by the Circulation of the newspapers and magazines among the readers which is an important source of revenue for the Company since its derives significant revenues from subscriptions and sales. In addition, circulation and readership significantly influence ad-spend by advertisers and the advertising rates in the newspapers. Circulation and readership is dependant on the quality and reach of the publications and the loyalty of the existing readers. Circulation in the Indian market is also largely affected by price and, therefore, the circulation of the newspapers may be adversely affected if the company fails to meet any price competition.

Changes in technology may render the current technologies obsolete or require the company to make substantial capital investments.

STRENGTH:

• Hindustan – Strong brand recognition.

• Emerging as a leading Hindi daily with leadership in key markets.

• Ability to successfully launch ‘Hindustan’ daily - in new markets.

• Strong relationship with Advertisers.

• Ability to provide local, national and international news with quality editorial content.

• Credible editorial team.

• Modern and advanced printing and technology infrastructure.

• Synergies with HT Media Limited.

• Strong management team.



RECOMMENDATIONS – INVEST

HMVL is a professionally run company and focuses a lot on adopting good corporate governance practices. It is a subsidiary of HT Media, which has been acknowledged as one of the top 25 companies adopting good corporate governance practices for 2009 by the Institute of Company Secretaries of India. HMVL draws its governance practices from HT Media itself and is expected to have similar robust board practices. HMVL
has a completely different senior and second line of management.

BHARAT BANDH: WHY CANNOT OPPOSITION RULED STATES REDUCE VAT.

The BJP and some other political parties have called for Bharat Bandh on 05-07-10 against price rise and for increase in prices of petroleum products. Assuming for the sake of argument, that Center's policies are flawed and the present UPA government is anti-poor. Among others, VAT constitute any where between 24 -33% of the petroleum product prices. VAT is a state subject and the respective state governments have the power and authority to slash the rate to zero level if they are so concerned about the common man,for whose sake the strike being called.
.

Sunday, July 04, 2010

DOES OUR BUSINESS HOUSES HAVE SOCIAL CONSCIENCE

The Indian business houses do some charities as a public relation exercise. They do not spend from their personnel wealth. Whatever money spent is accounted in the books of the company or its subsidiary or a SPV created for publicity. We need lot of funds in the field of education, basic health care, housing and infrastructure, particularly in the rural areas. The corporates are interested in enriching themselves in the name of creating value for stake holders. We have business magnets who are ready to invest up to Rs 1000cr for a housing complex for themselves and for their beloved ones. Lakhs of houses can be built for the poor even if 10% such amount is earmarked for social cause.This is only an example. Business magnets spend mind blowing money on marriages, birthday parties / other parties.They have left the uplift of the poor entirely at the mercy of the selfish politicians. No one is worried about the poor. Expecting the Indian businesses to follow the Buffet and Bill Gates philanthropy is a mirage.

Saturday, July 03, 2010

WORST PERFORMING IPOS OF 2010


            

             



Name of the company


Issue price

Price as on 30-06-10

Down by %

BRLMs

   Emmbi Polyarns       


RS 45

RS 18.40

59.11

Keynote
corporate



RS 260

RS 113.55

56.33

Axis bank, ICICI securities, Avendus capital


RS 90

RS 44.50

50.56
Almond Global,IDFC-SSKI



RS 75

RS 38.80

48.27

COMFORT SECT.
GOENKA DIAMONDS

RS 153

RS 74.80

44.59

SBI CAPS



RS 75

RS 45

39.73

Charted capital



RS 54

RS 38.55

28.61
ICICI, ENAM, KOTAK


RS 240

RS 183.25

23’65

MORGAN ENAM,KOTAK

  DB Realty                 


RS 468

RS 377.30

19.38

ENAM, KOTAK

INFRA SOFT

RS 145

RS 118.10

18.55
COLLINS STEWART INGA, ANAND RATHI

Thursday, June 10, 2010

IPO ANALYSIS: PARABOLIC DRUGS LIMITED – OVER PRICED - AVOID.

The Chandigarh based bulk drugs manufacturer is entering the capital market with an IPO. The company intends to mobilize Rs 200cr from the public offerings.
The company is proposes to issue 23.50 million equity shares in the price band of Rs 75-85, including offer for sale of 2.02million shares of Rs 10/-FV.
The issue will open on 14-06-10 and close on 17-06-09.

Pranav Gupta, Vineet Gupta, PNG Trading Private Limited and Parabolic Infrastructure Private Limited promote the company.

AVENDUS CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITED and ICICI SECURITIES LIMITED are the BRLMs.

The above BRLMs recently managed Shree Ganesh Jewellery IPO along with another merchant banker. As against the issue price of Rs 265/- the share is currently quoting around Rs130/-

BUSINESS

The company is engaged in the manufacturing, including contract manufacturing of
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) and API intermediates for the domestic market as well as for exports. APIs, also known as bulk drugs‘ or bulk actives‘ are the principal ingredient used in making finished dosages in the form of capsules, tablets, liquid, or other forms of dosage, with the addition of other APIs or inactive ingredients. The company also produces the Semi Synthetic Penicillin
(SSP) and Cephalosporin range of antibiotics in oral and sterile form, along with their intermediates.

Parabolic Drugs own and operate two manufacturing facilities at Derabassi, Punjab, and in Panchkula, Haryana. The commenced commercial operations in February 1998 by setting up a unit at Sundhran, Derabassi, to manufacture SSPs. It has six units at Sundhran, Derabassi, for manufacturing the oral and sterile range of Cephalosporin APIs and intermediates. The facility at Sundhran, Derabassi, is WHO-GMP and ISO-14001 certified. The second facility at Panchkula was established in fiscal 2005. Currently, the Panchkula facility has two units manufacturing SSPs and API intermediates such as 6 Amino Penicillin Acid. The company is in the in the process of setting up a custom synthesis and research and development centre at Barwala, Haryana, for development and scale-up of new APIs and APIs intermediates in all therapeutic segments, including non-antibiotic products. This facility is expected to commence operations in the last quarter of fiscal 2010, to focus on providing contract research services to innovator companies. In addition, the company is in the process of setting up another manufacturing facility at Chachrauli, Derabassi, to manufacture the non-antibiotic range of APIs, which is expected to commence commercial operations in the third quarter of fiscal 2011.

OBJECTS OF THE ISSUE

The company intends to utilize the funds for the following purposes:

1. Multi-purpose block III at Derabassi;
2. Sterile cephalosporin plant at Derabassi;
3. Establishment of manufacturing at Chachrauli.
4. Custom synthesis and manufacturing site II at IT Park, Panchkula;
5. Repayment / prepayment of identified loan facilities.

FINANCIALS:

The total revenue earned has increased from Rs. 15,056.33 lacs in fiscal 2007 to Rs. 39,693.70 lacs in fiscal 2009, and profit after tax has increased from Rs. 1,358.98 lacs to Rs. 2,109.20 lacs during this period. The total income and profit after tax as at September 30, 2009 were Rs. 23,342.56 lacs and Rs. 1,241.23 lacs, respectively. The net sales have increased at a CAGR of 62.50% from fiscal 2007 to fiscal 2009. Direct exports constituted 27.65% of our net sales in fiscal 2009, and 32.25% as at September 30, 2009.

MATTERS OF CONCERN.

• The company operates in a competitive business environment, both globally and domestically. Competition from existing players and new entrants and consequent pricing pressures will adversely affect the business..

• The pharmaceutical industry is highly regulated and the success of the company’s strategy of entering regulated markets is dependent on a number of factors beyond control the control of the company.

• Highly indebted company with floating rate of interest. As at September 30, 2009, the secured loan funds aggregated Rs. 30,385.83 lacs, all of which were at floating rates of interest which exposes the company to interest risk.

• Significantly dependent on imports of raw materials, particularly from China, and are to that extent exposed to risks including duties placed on imports from other countries.

• The name, business and logo of ‘Parabolic’ are not registered trademarks in the name of the Company.

• The funds requirement and funding plans are as per the company’s own estimates, and have not been appraised by any bank / financial institution.

• The average cost of acquisition of shares by promoters are as follows:

No. of shares Rs

Mr. Pranav Gupta 8, 24,100 3.50
Mr. Vineet Gupta 7, 01,550 3.42
Parabolic Infrastructure 58, 06,620 3.33

PNG Trading pvt ltd 1, 35, 70,800 3.43


IPO Grade – 2 by CARE

The grading is constrained by company’s unfavorable capital structure, project stabilization risk, volatility in prices of imported raw material along-with exposure to exchange risk because of imports and liabilities denominated in foreign currency, though partially mitigated because of direct exports. The grading factors in the strong growth in revenue reported in past, experienced management, approvals and certificates of suitability for few products from regulatory authorities in USA, EU and other regulated markets, reputed client base, strong focus on R&D activities and the company’s strategy to diversify into CRAMS business.


VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

For the FY 10 the company reported a net profit of Rs 21.10cr. The EPS on the post bonus and post issue equity works out to Rs 3.70. At the upper price band of Rs 85 the company demands valuation in excess of 20 PE. Companies like Neuland Lab and Nector life, who are in the similar line of business, are available at less than 9 PE. Grossly over priced. AVOID.

Sunday, June 06, 2010

IPO FROM AN INTANGIBLE ASSET COMPANY: FAT PIPE NETWORKS INDIA LIMITED.

The company earned a net profit after tax of Rs 399.37 lacs for the year 08-09, which was transferred to General Reserve. The balance at the end of the previous year in General Reserve was Rs 49.97 lacs. If you add, the profit transferred this year, to the figure it should be Rs 449.34 lacs. Simple arithmetic. However, as per the statement of accounts as furnished in the DRHP filed with SEBI, the figure is Rs 2103.04 lacs. For the difference, the corresponding entry shown in the balance sheet is Intangible assets.

Consider the following risks factors:


• The Company operates in a highly competitive environment and the competitors could gain a significant advantage by introducing a new product in a particular segment before the Company does.

• The majority of the operations of the Company are carried out from its branch offices in the USA. Risks related to FEMA.

• The funds requirements are not appraised by any Bank or Financial Institution.

• The Company proposes to acquire businesses/companies located outside India, the company is yet to identify companies/ businesses to be taken over.

• The Company has not yet tied-up for debt component for enhanced working capital needs.

• The Company has not paid dividend in the past.

• The global operations expose the Company to complex management.

• The combined employee strength is 120 and 50% are in sales and marketing.

• The average cost of acquisition of Equity Shares by the Promoters is at Rs 10/-

• Receivables out standing as on 30-09-09 are at Rs1269.69 lacs, against a turnover of Rs 2958.68 for the same period.There are debts that are outstanding for more than 180 days.

• Details cash/bank balances are not furnished. That is, in which bank the amount shown, as on balance sheet date, was kept.

• No project to be implemented. Structured IPO.

• IPO grade -2.



EPS for the year FY 10-11 is expected to be Rs. 5.50 per share. At the lower end of the price band of 82, PE multiple works out to 15 times. Similar companies in IT networking equipments / manufacturing are presently ruling at PE of around 8 times.

Investors are advised to stay away from the issue.